Expecting Too Much, Too Soon From the Milwaukee Bucks?
The buzz around the Milwaukee Bucks heading into the 2015-16 season has reached its highest level since Ray Allen, Glenn Robinson and Sam Cassell roamed the Bradley Center in the early 2000s.
With that "Big 3" an afterthought, Jason Kidd has the task of taking an exciting core of overachievers to the next level of NBA success. While everyone around the team is understandably excited for the new campaign, it's fair to wonder if fans aren't expecting a bit too much this year.
Two major items should be considered before everyone plans on the Bucks hosting the first two games of this year's postseason.
First of all, the 2014-15 crew shocked the experts (and even the super-optimistic fans) by adding 26 victories to the win column from the previous year. That marked the franchise's second-biggest swing in wins, behind the club's 29-win jump from its first year in existence to year two with some guy named Lew Alcindor.
On the surface, a boost in the on-the-court success is a cause for celebration, especially considering the Bucks played without their top draft pick (#2 overall), Jabari Parker, for the final 57 games of the season.
However, taking such a huge step forward is often the result of "everything going right."
That's not to say they didn't earn their victories or they didn't deserve the 41-41 record, it simply leaves one skeptical moving forward - at least to the following season.
In looking at NBA teams who had positive win increases from the 2012-13 season into the 2013-14 campaign, there's a possible trend worth following. Keep in mind this is a small sample size and there are countless variables.
(I took out the Minnesota Timberwolves from this because from the start of 2012 to the end of last season, the loss of Kevin Love was a too big a factor to get a true read on their situation.)
Two teams added more than 20 wins to their total from the 2012-13 season to the 2013-14 schedule, and both then won fewer contests the following season (Charlotte and Portland). Milwaukee falls into this category heading into the new slate, but it doesn't guarantee the same fate.
Interestingly, a pair of clubs won 14 and 15 more games respectively in 2013-14, and they added 1 or 2 victories the next year (Washington and Toronto). This should give the Bucks some hope that not all surges are complete flukes.
Squads that made smaller pushes in their victory totals were inconsistent in the third year margin. Of the 6 teams that won between 4 and 9 more contests two years ago, 4 of them added more wins last season, including the World Champion Golden State Warriors.
Those 4 teams added an average of 7.5 wins, while the 2 teams that fell back last year produced an average of 12.5 fewer victories.
The second potential concern is the simple fact that adding new players, different styles and learning how to play together often takes time. While the addition of Greg Monroe and the return of Parker are huge boons for Milwaukee, they could also create growing pains with the other three starters.
We saw some of the transitional issues last season when Michael Carter-Williams came to the team in February and Milwaukee struggled. Although, it was partly due to MCW being hurt.
Kidd and his coaches do have a full offseason to assimilate everybody into the game plan, but Parker is reportedly taking it easy in his comeback from ACL surgery.
It also remains to be seen how Giannis Antetokounmpo's skills will be utilized in the new season, how Monroe will fit in with the scheme, and whether or not Khris Middleton is the player many hope he actually is.
No one should take this as a negative look at the upcoming season - the excitement is well-deserved. My hope is that fans will be able to rationally accept the direction of the franchise if they only add a couple wins or (gasp!) drop a few extra games this season.
Keep in mind, they were clearly ahead of schedule last season, and in the grand scheme of things, player development and growth as a unit is more important in 2015-16...and then 50+ wins feels right in the years to come.