Rodgers Must Take More Chances When Trailing Late
Professional athletes are creatures of habit, which is part of what makes the greatest players who they are. The Green Bay Packers' QB is essentially on auto pilot when it comes to avoiding interceptions and "living to play another down."
But if Aaron Rodgers wants to conduct a few dramatic comebacks this year, he needs to cut the proverbial cord and let his pigskin-laden baby roam free when the situation dictates.
Rodgers' uber-cautious protection of the ball hurts his ability to bring his teams back from 4th-quarter deficits. His risk-averse attitude, which some believe is a stat-based focus to avoid INTs, prohibits him from making the last-ditch type of throws that could pull a rabbit out of the hat.
What's the point of playing it safe when the result will be the same? A loss is a loss, whether you go down in a blaze of glory chasing the CHANCE at victory or duck and cover with little hope to win.
We know he can thread the needle or drop it in the bucket, but he appears timid to even take those chances when a big play or multiple scores are needed in the 4th quarter.
One major criticism of the 31-year-old persists. In his refusal to even risk throwing a pick, he will simply hold the ball far too long and take the sack. This can be as much of a killer as an interception downfield when time and yardage are precious commodities
Yes, it's not too often a Rodgers-led club is behind in the final frame of any contest, although it might not be as dramatic as some like to believe.
In Rodgers' 110 career starts, he has trailed in the 4th-quarter in 34.5% of those. For reference, Brett Favre trailed in the 4th in 41.6% of his games (since '94), Peyton Manning in 41.4% and Tom Brady just 34.1% - a tick better than number 12.
Manning and Brady are fair comparisons for Rodgers as they've played in the same era during their primes - for the most part - which has heavily favored quarterbacks and the passing game overall.
With that, I wanted to see how these 3 stacked up against each other when it comes to their performance in the 4th quarter when they are behind on the scoreboard.
A few things jump out from the page.
1) Rodgers has been sacked on over 9% of passing plays in this situation - far more than the others.
2) On the surface, fewer sacks lead to both more interceptions AND more touchdowns.
3) Brady has apparently found the sweet spot, sitting between Manning and Rodgers when it comes to all 3 categories, leading to the best winning percentage among the trio.
The amount of sacks are rather stunning and do verify the opinions of many, while the comparison of INTs and TDs are also fascinating.
Of course, there are always finer details that could be disescted - things like a quarterback's defense losing the lead after he drove them to a go-ahead score or who has benefitted from better offensive lines. These are legitimate thoughts on the big picture.
However, these basic numbers should give you an idea of how Rodgers is leaving a few comebacks on the field by continuing to wait for the "perfect" opening to throw into.
A tiger can't change his stripes, so don't expect the Packers' signal caller to suddenly go full gunslinger when they need a couple of scores. My hope is someone - anyone - that he respects, will at least clue him into the benefit of occasionally letting it rip.
Ultimately, there are situations where taking the 3-yard dump off on 3rd-and-10 at your own 35 is a safe way to save one's stats while losing the game.
If you need a couple scores in the last quarter, forcing a ball between defenders or airing one out down the sideline is the RIGHT play, despite the increased chance of a turnover.
Rodgers' passer rating when behind in the 4th is a stunning 93.8, but again, that favors "playing it safe" with a higher completion percentage, a better yards-per-attempt average, and fewer interceptions.
Manning's rating in this situation is 89.2, while Brady, who again has the best winning percentage in this scenario, has the lowest rating at 83.2.
For the Packers' sake, they need to hope that Rodgers continues to be in the lead in the 4th because of his elite skill in quarters 1 through 3. But on those days he finds himself needing a comeback worthy of legend status, he needs to summon up a gambler's mentality.