It's Early, but the Milwaukee Bucks' Defense is a Concern
With 73 games left in the season, there's no need for Milwaukee Bucks fans to panic or think the team they're watching now is what they'll see throughout the 2015-16 campaign. That doesn't mean we shouldn't wonder what is going on with the defense right now.
Through the first 9 games, Milwaukee is giving up 101 points per game, 16th in the NBA. Last season the Bucks allowed 97.4 points a game, good for 8th in the league.
Some would say don't worry, they've only played 9 games, so it's a small sample size.
The Bucks' stats may also be skewed in giving up 122 and 118 in the first two contests, which included the absence of key players. Take out those debacles and Milwaukee's points allowed drops to 95.6 in 7 games.
However, as witnessed on Wednesday night in Denver, the Bucks have shown some regression already this season when it comes to the defensive side of the floor. After white hot shooting gave them a 64-53 halftime lead, Milwaukee watched the Nuggets zip past them with 34 points in the 3rd.
The Bucks' defense tightened in the 4th, but their comeback fell short as Khris Middleton's baseline jumper rimmed out in a 103-102 loss.
Still, the defensive effort for most of the game was a concern, and in watching the early season matchups, three things stand out:
Defenders are slow to react to swings, allowing for too many uncontested shots. Milwaukee allows teams to shoot 49.6% on two-point field goals - 9th-worst defensively in the league.
When beat off the dribble, inside help isn't there or it's lacking effectiveness (e.g. Greg Monroe). Milwaukee gives up the highest percentage of layups attempted and the 5th-most layups made.
Too much play defensively is with their hands first, leading to unnecessary fouls. The Bucks have 4th-most fouls in the NBA and opponents have shot the 6th-most free throws this year.
That takes us back to Wednesday night's loss as it represented the 4th time this season a Bucks' opponent crossed the 100-point threshold. Last year, the Bucks gave up 100 or more points in 34 non-overtime games, accounting for 41.5% of their schedule.
In those 34 games, Milwaukee was just 8-26. They're already 0-4 this season when allowing 100.
One concern head coach Jason Kidd expressed before the season was that pushing toward an emphasis on offense could create issues defensively - perhaps he was right.
In looking at some advanced statistics, the Bucks offensive rating (estimate of points scored per 100 possessions) this season is 104.7 (11th in NBA). Last year they ranked 26th at 102.7. This shows their offense has taken a big early step.
Unfortunately, the defense has gone in the other direction - and even more dramatically. They were the 3rd-best team in defensive rating a year ago at 102.2 points per 100 possessions. Through 9 games they currently sit 27th in the NBA at 109.5 points allowed.
As the season wears on, I'm confident Kidd and Bucks will figure out the best balance of maintaining an explosive offense while still having the blue-collar defensive mindset that carried them to 41 wins last season.
The consistent availability of the full roster will also help in terms of depth, rotations and talent - specifically getting Michael Carter-Williams and Jabari Parker on the floor game in and game out.
For now, hope Milwaukee can stem the tide a bit, make small adjustments to keep their enemies from going nuts on the scoreboard, and enjoy the development of a talented, young core with limitless offensive and defensive potential.