David Price Doesn't Hurt the Brewers, Prince Fielder Does
It's that time of the year when the big market, big-spending MLB clubs make their signature moves for top-of-the-line free agents, while middle-to-bottom level organizations (in terms of financial freedom) complain about the unfair design of baseball's salaries.
Admittedly, the ridiculous amount of money thrown around - the latest being David Price's $217 million deal with the Boston Red Sox (until Zack Greinke signs) - does exclude many teams from even sitting at the bargaining table.
I mean after all, Mark Attanasio's group bought the entire Milwaukee Brewers franchise for only $6 million more only 10 years ago. That's pretty telling. The thing is, while I don't actually subscribe to the "woe is me" laments of many fans and executives of smaller markets, free agent signings isn't where it really hurts anyway.
The most damage is done when top flight players on your own team approach free agency, and now you can't afford to keep them. Often times, the big splash free agent signings fail to meet expectations, but when you can hang onto your own talent, it tends to work out much better.
For a franchise like Milwaukee, losing talented guys at the end of their club controlled years has been consistent theme for more than two decades.
Either they'd trade a player who likely was going to test the market and be out of the Brewers' price range or they'd hang onto him through the end of the season before meekly waving goodbye.
Both options stink, but they're a reality.
With that in mind - and the way fans tend to argue the Brewers don't know how to acquire or develop talent - I was curious what costs would've been in play had the Brewers held onto a number of players recently.
Here was the thinking. As best I could, my perspective was based on who they likely would've kept with money being a non-issue. Also, in keeping certain players, other guys wouldn't have been brought to the team.
For example, Jean Segura wouldn't be with the Brewers if Milwaukee held onto Greinke and re-signed after the season.
I also wasn't considering contract length or factors outside of money. For simplicity sake, I went with each player's 2015 salary, and at the latest, he had to be with the team at some point in 2014 (or earlier, of course).
Starting lineup...
C - Jonathan Lucroy ($3 million)
RF - Ryan Braun ($13 million) 3B - Aramis Ramirez ($16 million)
1B - Prince Fielder ($24 million)
CF - Carlos Gomez ($8 million)
LF - Khris Davis ($519,500)
2B - Scooter Gennett ($516,500)
SS - Hector Gomez ($507,500)
So how do we feel about our $65.5 million starting 8 position players? If Ramirez would be at least his 2014 self instead of 2015, it's looking pretty good admittedly. Of course, you're looking at below average options at 2B and SS, but you can probably deal with that.
And perhaps you find similarly cheap options with better defensive metrics since your 1-6 hitters would be dynamic. So what about the bench?
The Bench...
C - Martin Maldonado ($825,000)
OF - Gerardo Parra ($6.237 million)
IF - Jason Rogers ($507,000)
OF - Shane Peterson ($507,500)
UTL: Elian Herrera ($507,500)
Probably about what you'd expect. Obviously, Parra is an expensive option as a fourth outfielder, but he'd still make sense on this club as a backup and defensive replacement for Davis or Braun.
Next up would be the starting rotation, of which I included 6 pitchers since A) You rarely get through a season with only 5 guys, and B) Considering how Kyle Lohse ended up in 2015, you had to have options.
Rotation...
1: Zack Greinke ($25 million)
2: Yovani Gallardo ($14 million)
3: Mike Fiers ($512,000)
4: Kyle Lohse ($11 million)
5: Wily Peralta ($525,500)
6: Jimmy Nelson ($511,500)
Greinke's incredible numbers from 2015 sure would've fit nicely (19-3, 1.66 ERA, 225 ERA+), and Gallardo had a strong year as well (3.42 ERA, career-best 124 ERA+), so this could work. Probably not what most people would expect though, considering these 6 pitchers account for $51.5 million.
You could make some arguments for the bullpen as far as who would be there or not, but going with the premise that they kept guys who were performing and with the club at some point in 2014, these 6 felt most accurate.
Bullpen...
CL: Francisco Rodriguez ($3.5 million)
SU: Will Smith ($512,500)
SU: Jeremy Jeffress ($510,500)
MR: Jonathan Broxton ($7 million)
MR: Michael Blazek ($580,500)
UTL: Marco Estrada ($3.9 million)
There would be moving pieces with pitchers coming up from the minors or a guy like Estrada who might spot start during the year. You could argue they wouldn't have gone after Broxton in 2014 had they had this squad, but Doug Melvin loves his veteran, mid-season reliever trades.
First of all, what do you think about this team? If we assume generally good health and similar production, 2014 and 2015 could've been extremely exciting. You never know if it leads to a championship, but it would appear the talent would've been there.
So, the grand total for these 25 players alone would be....
$145 million
That doesn't include other contracts or purchases that happen within an organization throughout the season, but it's a good number to work with.
If Milwaukee had this payroll in 2015, it would have ranked as the 8th-highest in MLB. Instead, the Brewers' 2015 payroll (as of Opening Day) was just 19th at $105 million.
The most expensive payroll in Milwaukee history, as calculated at the end of the 2014 season, was a mere $110.3 million - a full $35 million under this fictional figure.
This might give fans a better perspective on why the Brewers need to feverishly work to develop young players together, wait until the perfect time to call them up, and get every ounce of productivity while they're cheap and under team control.
The sooner they get through arbitration and into their free agent years, the more likely Milwaukee's hands will be tied. It also shows the importance and quality strategy of trying to buy out at least a couple years of a player's free agent period.
It's a risk-reward play by the organization in hoping to hang onto a talented guy for a bit longer, in exchange for the guaranteed higher salary. The risk is that he doesn't produce to that level or - even worse - gets hurt
However, the risk is even greater once the player ages and you try to strike during free agency. Much like Lohse and Ramirez, the final year of a contract can be absolutely deadly as the cost ends up far outweighing the production. Fielder is another case where it may not have worked out well. Sure, you'd take his 2015 performance in a heartbeat, but he only played in 42 games the previous season. That $24 million anchor may have killed the Brewers...or maybe if he stayed, he never gets hurt.
It's fun to think about these things, but it also shows the immense challenge there is in building a long-term successful franchise. Let's hope the Brewers are in the beginning stages of the exact result we're looking to see.