Figuring Out How the Packers Have Managed 8 Wins
Considering all the struggles the Green Bay Packers have endured, including Eddie Lacy's strange and disappointing season, the passing game ranking 23rd in yards, and mounting injuries, former Packers' tight end Mark Chmura is probably right to wonder how they've lost only 4 games.
There is clearly plenty of talent to go around on this team, and while their two-time NFL MVP hasn't been himself this season, Aaron Rodgers is still the best weapon in the league.
But despite his dramatic missile launcher of a TD to beat the Detroit Lions, it'd be unfair to give him too much credit for Green Bay's division lead and still strong 8-4 mark.
There have been a handful of areas the Packers have benefitted just enough to stay within striking distance of the Super Bowl, especially considering the overall "blah" play in the NFC.
FIRST DOWNS DUE TO PENALTY
Green Bay has the 4th-most first downs converted by a penalty (33). When you can move the chains and get a fresh set of downs without having to technically do anything, it is a welcome aid to the sustained life of a drive. Ideally, it turns into points, which the Packers have done as well.
Some of the penalties are thanks to dumb defensive mistakes, while others (like Rodgers' hard count) are earned by offensive intelligence. Some are also the result of an offensive player beating his man, causing them to act illegally in trying to make a play.
These don't even count the "free plays" that don't go down as penalties because the offense still executes. It's a bonus to have these complimentary conversions, and it's helped Green Bay's less-than-stellar offense.
AVOIDING TURNOVERS LIKE THE PLAGUE
We know about Rodgers' aversion to interceptions as it sometimes causes consternation among fans who watch him hold onto the ball and take sacks. His caution, along with mostly sure hands from the ball carriers, have the Packers with the 2nd-lowest turnover percentage in football (6.4%).
That means Green Bay gives the ball away on just 6.4% of its possessions, a tick behind the Kansas City Chiefs (6.3%). Avoiding turnovers isn't a guaranteed path to success, but it gives you a big edge on the competition by putting something on the board or not giving them a short field.
The field position saved and ability to salvage points - even if it's only a field goal - have done enough to keep the Packers in a better situation to ultimately win a majority of their games this season.
SACKING QUARTERBACKS AT A HIGH RATE
The defensive pressure disappeared a bit in the middle of the season, but overall this group has gotten after the signal caller and made him pay. Packers' defenders are sacking opponents on 7.2% of their passes, good for the 5th-highest rate in the NFL.
Stalling drives, disrupting passing games, and even forcing turnovers (Matthew Stafford meet Julius Peppers), Green Bay's pressure has contributed mightily to the Pack's 6th-best rank in scoring defense (19.8 points/game).
When things have gone well up front, the rest of the defense tends to follow suit and make plays behind them.
OPPORTUNISTIC TAKEAWAYS
Although the Packers are tied for just 22nd in takeaways this season, they've had the uncanny ability to make most of them count to the fullest. They've also been consistent.
The Packers have only 15 takeaways in 12 games (1.25 per game), but they have at least one forced turnover in every game except one.
Only twice have they had multiple takeaways in a game, but so many have either killed the opponent's momentum or kick-started the Packers' offense. The Peppers' strip sack in Detroit was a prime example, helping to quickly turn a 20-0 hole into a mere 6-point deficit.
Other examples:
Week 1: Clay Matthews picks off Jay Cutler at the Green Bay 29-yard line with 3:55 left in the game and the Packers leading the Chicago Bears by 8. The Packers would score a TD on the ensuing drive.
Week 2: Jayrone Elliot snags a Russell Wilson pass with 6:50 to play and Green Bay ahead by 7. That leads to a Packers' field goal before the defense forces a fumble with just :32 left.
Week 5: Following a Rodgers INT in the 1st quarter, the Packers' defense intercepts Nick Foles at the Green Bay 48. Seven plays later, the Packers have their second pick of the frame as Quinten Rollins takes it 45 yards to the end zone for a 14-0 lead. The Rams had 4 turnovers in the game.
A LITTLE BIT OF LUCK...YES, LUCK
Many fans and athletes don't want to recognize the impact of pure luck in determining the outcome of games, but it exists. Whether it's a bounce, a call or when you play a particular team, there are factors that simply favor one side for no particular reason.
That's not to say guys don't have to make plays, but you can usually pick out a few things.
Rodgers' game-winning Hail Mary was a tremendous show of arm strength on his part, as well as concentration and hands on the part of Richard Rodgers.
However, completing a Hail Mary for a touchdown is mostly luck in itself, let alone the dumb penalty that gave Green Bay another play, and the fumble for a touchdown earlier in the contest.
Green Bay was also "lucky" to face the Chiefs and Seattle Seahawks early in the season as opposed to more recently. The Chiefs started 1-5, including a week 3 loss to the Packers. The Seahawks got off to a 2-4 start and played Green Bay without Pro Bowl safety, Kam Chancellor.
Since week 7, those two teams have combined to go 11-1 this year, and they've looked far better than the Packers in doing so. It's not a given those wins would've been losses, but it's likely.
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None of this is a predictor of future events necessarily, but they speak to the relative success the Packers have had - despite plenty of issues - and to the surprise of many who have been watching (especially lately).
Unless Rodgers and the offense starts to pick up the slack a bit, Green Bay will need these things to continue to go its way. At the same time, all you need to do is get into the postseason - a weak division helps - and there's a shot for that miracle run to the title once again.