Brewers Will Need to Work Hard to Move Jean Segura
In looking at the Milwaukee Brewers' offseason, GM David Stearns has been quite busy. Among his more notable transactions were trades of Francisco Rodriguez and Adam Lind, taking a pair of players in the Rule 5 draft, and acquiring former high-end third base prospect, Garin Cecchini.
The flurry of movement shouldn't be a surprise as Milwaukee seeks young talent to create a foundation for the franchise to allow them to have a sustainable pool of talent to be consistently competitive for years to come.
Jean Segura doesn't fit the bill as a high-cost, soon-to-be free agent the Brewers "need" to get rid of, but instead it's a matter of value. While his offensive production has fallen off since his first year in Milwaukee, his defense has been better than advertised when he was dealt to the Brewers.
A large factor is the looming appearance of stud prospect Orland Arcia, who could be the everyday shortstop by the start of 2017. Milwaukee would be fine with stop-gap options at the position until then.
So what can Segura offer teams that would interest them?
In his time at shortstop, Segura has displayed solid range with a quick release and above-average arm to take more than a few hits away from the opposition. Many defensive metrics put him, at worst, in the middle of the pack over the last 3 years.
As noted, the offensive side of things have been a bit ugly the last two seasons, hitting a combined .252 with a horrible .615 OPS in owning a .285 OBP and .331 SLG. When he actually does get on base, he's a huge threat with his speed (89 stolen bases last 3 years)...but you can't steal first.
If we look at an all-encompassing offensive advanced statistic like wOBA (weighted on-base average), Segura checks in dead last among qualified shortstops with a .270 wOBA since 2014. The league average for shortstops is .297 over this time.
For this reason, some believe the Brewers would be better off waiting until the trade deadline to see if Segura's bat can at least get hot for a couple of months.
One thing other clubs could gamble on is that players often hit their peak seasons between age 27-29, so with Segura turning just 26 ahead of Opening Day, he could enjoy a couple of breakouts yet. Former Brewer Carlos Gomez is a great example of this.
However, at this point, much of the 25-year-old's value comes from his age, cheap contract and 3 more years of team control. He won't be a free agent until after the 2018 season. Thus, the longer you wait, the less valuable those things become.
You also risk an injury or more poor performances, diminishing his value even further. On the flipside, if Milwaukee waits, another team could lose a shortstop and get desperate.
It's a tough call either way.
While top-end shortstops are in limited supply around MLB, there also aren't a ton of teams in need of an upgrade - at least not the slight improvement that Segura would currently offer.
However, there are three teams (in order) that stand out as possible suitors before the start of the 2016 campaign:
San Diego Padres
They've been in the market for a "real" shortstop for a while, and Segura fits in terms of cost and ability. His bat could play well in Petco's spacious confines where he can find gaps between and in front of outfielders. His defense would also complement the pitcher-friendly ballpark.
San Diego has a few young, intriguing catchers in their system that would certainly pique the Brewers' interest with Jonathan Lucroy likely gone before the 2017 season.
Chicago White Sox
After declining Alexei Ramirez's $10 million option, Chicago has focused on infield flexibility, but not a replacement at short. Sox GM Rick Hahn has an aggressive style and has made two trades to improve his infield, one acquiring Brett Lawrie (former Brewers' prospect) from Oakland.
He also just made a swap to get Todd Frazier from Cincinnati to play 3rd base, further indicating a desire to win in the next 2 seasons.
With Tyler Saladino currently penciled in at short, Chicago doesn't have a proven option as he has just 63 MLB innings there. The White Sox may be inclined to have a veteran presence at such an important position. Meanwhile, Chicago has a number of young pitchers the Brewers would take.
Toronto Blue Jays
It was a bit of a surprise to hear the Jays contacted Milwaukee about Segura since they have Troy Tulowitzki at short, but it also makes some sense. Tulowitzki struggles annually with injuries, so Segura would be insurance there.
Toronto will also be without second baseman Devon Travis at the start of 2016 due to shoulder surgery. Segura gives them coverage up the middle throughout the year. Also, the Brewers and Jays have plenty of history, making it an easier sell for both parties.
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With the Brewers realistically not contending for a few years, these are the types of transactions we should be focused on. They may not be as exciting as playoff baseball, but they will play a role in getting Milwaukee back into October intensity.