Playing the Percentages: Packers Enter Week 15 in Control
Our "Playing the Percentages" articles will feature 5 statements that relate to a team's performance, players, future, etc. While these aren't predictions, we give percentages to indicate how likely think something will happen.
Up first is the Green Bay Packers as they prepare for their week 15 road tilt against the Oakland Raiders. It's an intriguing matchup with implications on the playoff picture in the NFC.
1) Eddie Lacy Rushes for 100 yards vs. Oakland - 57%
Lacy has reached the 100 mark in the last 3 games he played a full game, while the Raiders give up 101.2 rushing yards per game (12th). They also rank 28th in passing yards allowed at 271.5 yards per game, so the Packers might air it out a bit more.
James Starks will also take away some carries, and there's always the concern that early-season Lacy shows up on the West Coast.
2) Defense Holds Oakland Under 250 Passing Yards - 34%
Green Bay has held opponents under 250 passing yards in 5 straight games, giving up 233.8 pass yards per game this year. However, they've allowed chunks of yards against strong quarterbacks and Derek Carr has the Raiders averaging 253.5 passing yards.
If the Raiders are trailing, it's even less likely the Packers hold Carr below 250 in catch-up mode.
3) Green Bay Loses to Both Oakland and Arizona - 22%
The Raiders won't be an easy win, but the Packers should expect a victory to greatly diminish the chance of this happening. Oakland is 0-3 against the NFC North and just 2-4 at home, so not much favors them on Sunday.
The Arizona Cardinals a legitimate Super Bowl threat and are clearly a better team than the Packers. Regardless, they've have shown some flaws and Green Bay shouldn't be counted out in that game. If the Packers lose to the Raiders, however, you wonder about the mental state of the team.
4) Packers Finish Year With Fewest Points in the "Rodgers Era" - 45%
The Packers have scored 317 points (24.4 per game) and average just 21.9 in their last 7. Since Aaron Rodgers took over in 2008, the Packers' lowest total was 388 in the 2010 Super Bowl season. They won thanks in large part to their defense that year, allowing 15 points per game (2nd in NFL).
Based on their season-long average, Green Bay would finish with 390 points, just a safety better than 2010. Arizona's defense is tough, and a week 17 game at Lambeau could see difficult conditions for the offense. It's just about a toss-up if they finish below 388 points on the season.
5) Green Bay Wins the NFC North - 90%
Some people will probably say I'm cursing the Packers with such a high number, but the odds are greatly on their side. Even if the Minnesota Vikings win their next 2 and the Packers lose the next pair, a Green Bay win at home in week 17 would give them the crown on a head-to-head tiebreaker.
It's conceivable to see Minnesota lose one or both of their games before heading to Lambeau, and coupled with at least one Packers' win, the chances of a 5th straight North title climbs. If they choke it away, feel free to illogically blame this article.