Playing the Percentages: Playoff Preview in Week 16?
In the second Green Bay Packers' edition of "Playing the Percentages," the stakes are raised as only 2 more weeks are left in the 2015 regular season. Again with these articles, we're not offering predictions per se, but an estimate on the likelihood of something taking place.
As Green Bay travels to Phoenix to take on the 12-2 Arizona Cardinals, the defense will be tested with a veteran quarterback, three dangerous receivers and running back David Johnson, who is coming off a 187-yard, 3 TD performance on the ground last week.
We take a shot at both the upcoming challenge in Arizona, and how (and when) the Packers might finish up this season...
1) Packers Hold Arizona to Less Than 28 Points - 30%
As noted above, the Cards have some great weapons and are scoring 31.8 points/game, 2nd-best in the NFL. They've reached the 28-point mark in 8 of their 14 contests and tallied 40+ points on 4 of those occasions, including last week's 40-17 drubbing of the Philadelphia Eagles.
The Packers' defense, however, has allowed the 5th-fewest points in football this year. Green Bay is giving up 18.9 points/game, surrendering 28 or more just 3 times - the last time coming in week 9. The Cardinals will get their yards, but the key will be if Green Bay can hold them to field goals.
2) Green Bay's Defense Forces a Turnover - 62%
Though the Packers rank 19th in the NFL in takeaways, they've managed at least one forced turnover in 13 of their 14 games. The only time they were shut out was on Thanksgiving night. Many times, the takeaways have been in key spots, and twice resulted in defensive touchdowns.
On the flipside, Arizona hasn't turned the ball over in 4 consecutive contests...but they had some issues earlier this season. The Cardinals had 19 turnovers in their first 10 games, including 4 games with at least 3 turnovers. Green Bay will have chances for a big interception or fumble in this one.
3) Defense Finishes in the Top 5 in Points Allowed - 46%
Again, the Packers are currently 5th in points allowed, something few (if any) experts would've predicted in August. The last time Green Bay ended a season in the top 5 was in 2010 on their way to the franchise's 13th NFL Championship.
Coincidentally, the offense will play a role in how high the defense finishes as Arizona ranks 6th, just 4 total points behind them. Then their last opponent, the Minnesota Vikings, have allowed a just 7 points more this season. It will all come together at Lambeau Field in week 17.
4) No Player Collects 1,000 Yards Receiving - 85%
Only 6 times since 1989 has a Packers' team failed to produce a 1,000-yard receiver in a season, and it has happened only once in the last 11 years (2012). In 2 of those seasons, Bill Schroeder was the leading receiver (once finishing with 999 yards), so that tells you how bad and rare it is.
Randall Cobb currently has 777 yards and James Jones sits with 742, both on pace to end the year below even 900 yards. It's possible one of them goes off in a game - more likely versus Minnesota - but there's little evidence to suggest either will hit 1,000 for the season.
5) The Packers Reach the NFC Championship Game - 25%
It's almost a certainty that Green Bay will need to win a playoff game in either Arizona or Carolina against the currently 14-0 Panthers to make it back to the NFC title game. There's still a slim chance they get the 2-seed, but it would take 2 wins and a pair of Cardinals' losses.
There's also the possibility the Packers slip to the 5 or 6 seed if they lose to the Vikings, which would mean they hit the road for the opening game of the playoffs and the Divisional round. The numbers and their performances are stacked against the Packers getting within a game of the Super Bowl.
At the same time, I'm still giving them a 1 in 4 shot because as we've seen far too often, sometimes it just takes the right matchup and a hot hand to win a few NFL postseason battles.