Playing the Percentages: Sharing the Blame for Bucks' Defense
It's time to take a look at the Milwaukee Bucks in our "Playing the Percentages" feature, as the team continues to struggle through the first half of this highly-anticipated season.
As we alluded to before the season, some of the expectations were probably too high coming off the surprise 41-41 campaign a year ago. At the same time, legitimate concerns with this mix of players appear to be creeping up.
Sometimes it's tough to have the patience of an actual rebuild (Milwaukee Brewers fans, pay attention), but questions still need to be asked as the calendar flips to January.
Normally we use the percentages as a way of designating the chances of something happening in the future. In this edition, we're looking to split the blame for the Bucks' lackluster defense as they're giving up 102.3 points/game (20th), nearly 5 points more than last year when they ranked 8th.
1) Newcomer Greg Monroe - 24%
As the big free agent signing Monroe has taken some heat for the club's defensive struggles. Advanced stats like Defensive Win Shares (DWS) and Defensive Box Plus/Minus (DBPM) rate him as a top-2 defender on the team this year, but that might be misleading.
His DWS of 1.0 puts him about 65th in the NBA entering Tuesday night, while his 0.9 DBPM barely gets him to around 115th (minimum 10 games). While that's also an idictment of the Bucks' defense as a whole, those stats may be a bit generous anyway.
It's been apparent from the eye test that Monroe is slow in the Bucks' aggressive defensive scheme often leaving him out of position as the shot clock dwindles. His lack of quickness and recognition allows for some easy baskets or puts his teammates in poor defensive situations.
2) Second-Year "Rookie" Jabari Parker - 36%
It's not an excuse, but Parker is essentially a rookie who is still learning how to play in the NBA. Throw in an active defensive scheme that is only perfected through experience, and you will find a couple of reasons the second-year forward looks lost on the defensive end.
The Bucks are also still trying to figure out the best position for Parker as he falls between the small and power forward roles. He will consistently get beat by quick slashers and often be trapped in no man's land as possessions get longer where multiple switches and rotations are needed.
Still only 20 years old - and someone who came out of college with many questions on the defensive end - there's plenty of time to develop and grow. However, if you're looking for contributors to the defensive troubles this year, Parker is playing a huge role right now.
3) Lengthy Guard Michael Carter-Williams - 8%
Like Monroe and Parker, MCW is another guy who has played fewer than 60 games in this defensive scheme. He's heard his fair share of criticism early in the year (mainly offensively), but overall MCW's actually done a nice job disrupting the opposition.
MCW's long arms and frame stress ball handlers and allow him to make up for some mistakes. He will still get confused on some switches and be out of control at times as he uses his athleticism to fly to the ball, but overall he's been solid - and the stats agree.
4) Rest of the Group - 18%
Jason Kidd's scheme is predicated on all-around cohesiveness among the defenders, so the other players on the roster play a large factor, even if they're winning their individual assignments. Whether it's being slow on help defense or getting beat off the dribble, everyone's had some issues.
Another major problem has been the Bucks' tendency to rack up fouls. In fact, they are committing the most fouls per game at 22.8 each contest. Giannis Antetokounmpo is 2nd in the NBA in fouls again this season (2nd last year), while Khris Middleton is currently 11th.
The fouls give opponents easy points from the line and reset their offense in non-shooting situations. The fouls and sporadic coverage across the floor have worked together to knock the Bucks down quite a few pegs on defense - which is a full team effort.
5) The Scheme Itself - 14%
The Bucks rely on a high-energyy, blitzing type of defense that can have great results, but also lends itself to some wild play. With youth and inexperience, the defense can quickly become out of sync with longer possessions or if a defender lands out of position or is late to help.
There may also be an element of teams responding better to the Bucks' scheme having seen it for a full year. As in any sport, minor adjustments are necessary when you find success, because your opponents are finding ways to beat it. Perhaps a few small changes are needed going forward.