Playing the Percentages: Brewers 2016 Trade Chips
As we've been sitting in single digit temperatures in Milwaukee, it got me thinking about some other numbers. In this edition of Playing the Percentages, we examine the likelihood some of the current Milwaukee Brewers will be traded prior to this season's trade deadline.
While it would be great if GM David Stearns warmed up the hot stove again this offseason, you get the feeling many moves - if they happen - will be sometime between Opening Day and July 31.
For a guy like Jonathan Lucroy, the hesitation may be in that teams want to see if he bounces back from his injuries and down production last year. For other players it's simply a matter of what other talent is currently available or if a team believes they need the help right now.
Again, these aren't true predictions in any way, but an effort to give you a sense of the probability of events like these occurring.
So among these Brewers, what percent chance do we foresee a trade happening prior to July 31, 2016.
1) Jean Segura - Shortstop - 57%
It's really difficult to see the Brewers hanging onto Segura too much longer as his price and age will begin to rise more steadily, ultimately lowering his value. There are still some teams looking for a younger, proven everyday shortstop, but nothing is certain.
The Brewers just lost a likely partner in the San Diego Padres as they reportedly signed free agent Alexei Ramirez to a 1-year deal to play short.
As always, it comes down to what teams would offer the Brewers in return. The shortstop position is relatively thin across the league, so between ineffectiveness, cost and a potential injury to another club, it's fair to expect Segura to be donning new threads before August.
2) Ryan Braun - Right Field - 12%
There's been a little bit of chatter recently, and Stearns is willing to deal just about anyone at this point. While many clubs will want to see if Braun can again manage his thumb issue and prove his ability another year away from PEDs, his production in the first half may sway some GMs.
Braun is owed $91 million over the next 5 years, so a number of teams won't want to gamble at that price; however, if he continues to post a slash line like last year (.285 AVG/.356 OBP/.498 SLG/ .854 OPS), his bat is extremely valuable from the right side of the plate.
It still appears unlikely to happen before next offseason unless a GM gets desperate. After the 2016 season? Maybe. Of course, Stearns could determine it's worth either eating some of the money to get more talent or take a "lesser" deal to rid the Brewers of the remaining cost.
3) Will Smith or Jeremy Jeffress - Relief Pitchers - 33%
This idea might be a bit premature, but it's not inconceivable to see Stearns move one of these guys at the deadline if a team is willing to overpay. Considering the value GMs are putting on relievers right now, Smith and Jeffress would be tempting options with a low cost.
Smith is in his first arbitration year and is projected to make around $1.2 million - nothing for a lefty reliever who has been among the top bullpen arms when you break down his numbers. Smith is just 26 and under team control until after the 2019 season, thus adding greater value.
Jeffress is actually 2 years older, but is also under team control through 2019. He made just $510,500 last season and won't see arbitration until next year. He's also been a reliable bullpen arm and someone who could be a commodity in the late innings for a contender.
The cheap, controllable talent is what every team wants. That's the rub - the Brewers would also benefit from the pair. Reliever performance is often a volatile proposition, so the Brewers need to assess that risk. Plus, by the time Milwaukee is truly competing, their contracts will be expiring.
4) Khris Davis - Left Field - 51%
I wrote about a potential Davis trade back on October, noting his inexpensive price tag, tantalizing right-handed power, his hot end of the season and his fit as a part-time DH in the American League. In the last few weeks, there's been some articles noting this same possibility before August.
In the last 2 months last season, Davis hit 20 HRs and had 44 RBI while slugging .582 to post a .905 OPS. Those are elite power numbers that pushed him to 10th in the National League in long balls while playing in only 121 games.
If Davis can continue to show the big power early in 2016, GMs will start to believe and covet the pop from that side of the dish. Meanwhile, the Brewers have a plethora of talented outfielders waiting in the wings, and it could open up left field for another power guy in Domingo Santana.
5) Jonathan Lucroy - Catcher - 18% For most people, this has been the biggest question during the offseason - either because they wanted him traded for high-end prospects or they desperately hoped he would still be with the team. As we get closer to February, it's harder to see a deal happening this year.
Though his talent and friendly contract are big plusses, many are concerned about his injuries and dip in performance a year ago. If teams are willing to pay a major price, they want to be certain they're getting the 2014 version of Lucroy, not last year's.
Additionally, it's less likely a catcher gets traded mid-season because of the connections they make with pitchers during Spring Training to be on the same page and be most effective. Trying to implant Lucroy onto a staff at the deadline may have a negative impact on the pitchers, negating his framing skills.
Like Braun, but for different reasons, it seems more plausible Lucroy is traded after the 2016 season ends, even though that puts him a year closer to free agency. It appears Stearns isn't going to settle for just anything - which is the right move.
That also means, barring a contender losing their starting catcher or another important piece, Luc will be in Milwaukee for another year. If you want the Brewers to collect top prospects for him and accelerate the rebuilding process, hope for another All-Star season behind the dish.
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