Upset Playoff Win? Packers Need Two Essential Ingredients
As the Green Bay Packers seek to upset the 2nd-seeded Arizona Cardinals on Saturday night, there are two main areas the road underdogs need to exploit. Despite the clear advantage in talent Arizona holds, the pair of equalizers rest with turnovers and special teams play.
This applies for any team looking for a tough postseason win away from home, but the opportunity is rather evident in this matchup. Though the Cardinals appear to be the best team in the NFC with terrific balance and depth, they aren't flawless.
The biggest boost to the Packers on Saturday would be to get an early turnover to set the tone, calm the crowd, and potentially jump out to that early lead. It's amazing what a quick pick or fumble can do to swing the feel of the game.
Arizona has been a team that gets loose with the football at times. They had a nice 4-game stretch without any turnovers, but they also had 5 turnovers in their final 2 games and finished with 24 on the season. That puts them 21st in taking care of the football.
Meanwhile, though the Packers ranked just 19th in total takeaways, they had at least one fumble recovery or interception in every game but one this season. That includes 2 takeaways against the Cardinals in week 16 and a fumble recovery in their playoff opener.
Carson Palmer will give Green Bay a couple of poor throws that they need to turn into at least one pick. He's not the most agile of QBs either, so they could knock a ball or two out of his hands as well. Palmer had 11 INTs and 6 fumbles this year.
Getting that early momentum - and even better, a lead - would allow the Packers to emphasize and commit to the run. In doing so, you hopefully keep the Cards' high-scoring offense off the field and rely less on Green Bay's less than stellar receiving corps.
Even without a turnover, the Packers can neutralize Arizona by winning the field position battle and creating short fields for Aaron Rodgers to work with.
Arizona allows an average of 24.3 yards per kick return, 17th in the NFL. The Packers' returners average about the same - 24.5 yards per return - good for 11th in the league. With that, it's tempting to let Jeff Janis and company always bring the ball out of the end zone in search of a big play.
When you're in the role of underdog (yes, Mike McCarthy - underdog), it's often necessary to take a few more risks. Besides, if they start at their own 15 versus the 20, it isn't a big difference. But if the Packers can open drives at the 35-yard line, now they're in business.
The punt return game has potential to flip the field as well, though Green Bay would need to possibly change up its strategy. The Packers rank 30th in punt return average with just 5.4 yards per return.
On the other hand, Arizona has the 4th-worst punt coverage in football, with an average net punt (punt distance minus return yardage) of just 35.4 yards. Again, whether it's Micah Hyde returning or even a Randall Cobb appearance, they need to take a chance or two.
As we've seen throughout the history of the NFL - including with the Packers - one solid return can jumpstart an offense and fire up the whole group. Special teams success isn't expected, and when you lack the firepower elsewhere, it can be a game changer.
The idea that turnovers and special teams would key an upset victory isn't some new formula. However, in some games against certain teams, it becomes a greater possibility - and the impact has enormous residual effects.
I'm sticking with my prediction of 34-20 Cardinals, and the Packers haven't given anyone much of a reason to pick them. Still, it wouldn't be terribly shocking if it happened.
However, if they're going to find their way to a 2nd straight NFC Championship game, it will hinge on early turnovers, special teams, and a probably a little bit of luck. In a one-and-done playoff contest, anything is possible.