Packers' Offense Killing the Team With 2nd Quarter No-Shows
The Green Bay Packers finished the year 15th in points scored (23 points/game) and totaled their lowest output in the Aaron Rodgers' era by a full 20 points. One area that is particularly killing the Packers' offense in 2015 is the complete inability to score in the 2nd quarter.
They were dead last in scoring - that's 32nd out of 32 teams - in the 2nd quarter.
In half of the team's games, Green Bay failed to put a single point on the board in the 2nd quarter, including 4 of the last 5 contests. Of the other 8 games, the Packers tallied just 3 points on 3 occasions and 6 points on another.
That means the Packers scored fewer than 7 second-quarter points in 75% of the their schedule, with an average of 3.5 points in the frame that leads into halftime. The importance of this can be how you perceive it.
Many teams, including the Packers, talk about "doubling down" or getting a "two-for-one," referring to the ability to score at the end of the 2nd quarter, then receive the kickoff after halftime and score again. It's the rare time you essentially get back-to-back possessions.
If you're trailing in that game, it's a golden opportunity to bounce back or take the lead. If you're ahead early, it's possible to put your opponent in a deep hole, significantly increasing the chance at victory.
Making this an even more potentially dangerous quarter is that the Packers' opening playoff opponent, the Washington Redskins, has given up the 5th-fewest points in the 2nd quarter. The combo of strength versus weakness could dig the Packers too big of a hole to crawl out of.
So, is this year just a fluke or are there issues to address?
Last season the Packers scored the 3rd-most points in the 2nd quarter, averaging 9.2 per contest. In 2013 they were in the middle of the pack at 6.6 points per 2nd quarter.
One factor could be Green Bay's offensive performance in the 1st quarter, which has probably been better than most people realize in 2015.
This season, despite being dead last in 2nd-quarter scoring, the Packers have the 2nd-best output in the opening quarter, averaging 6.6 points. They've actually tallied double digits in the 1st frame 5 different times this season.
Again, the 1st quarter success is probably a bit surprising.
Last year, when Green Bay was the 3rd-best team in 2nd-quarter points, the offense also had the best NFL average in the 1st quarter with a 9.5 points. So nothing has changed relative to the rest of the league in starting the game - although it shows scoring is down in the 1st quarter overall.
In regards to how the Packers' offense is playing in the 2nd quarter, the team's performance in the opening frame has little (if anything) to do with it. That leads to a few thoughts as to why it's been such a struggle this season.
1) Coach Mike McCarthy is good at setting an offensive game plan in place, but has trouble adjusting on the fly.
Whether it's a set of scripted plays or exploiting tendencies of the defense, McCarthy puts a good plan in place that allows the Packers to succeed early before any adjustments are made. However...
In the flow of the contest, when you rarely have a break to analyze what will or won't work, McCarthy fails to make quick changes. Last year, with Jordy Nelson and the MVP version of Rodgers, he could simply rely on their talent and how they made the other guys better.
2) Rodgers has trouble improvising when the game plan falls apart or fails to work.
In what has been his worst year in terms of passer rating, yards and completion percentage, Rodgers has been least productive in the 2nd quarter. That's not surprising considering the Packers lean so heavily on him to succeed as a whole.
While his yardage is solid in the 2nd quarter, he owns an 85.6 rating in the 2nd quarter, throwing just 4 TDs with a pair of INTs.
As with McCarthy, this gives the impression Rodgers cannot make things happen on his own and elevate the team when the initial strategy comes up short. And again, without Nelson to help bail him out, he simply cannot produce at a high level in this case, torpedoing Green Bay's offense.
3) With Tom Clements in charge of play calling, the 2nd quarter philosophy was different and impacted the production.
While McCarthy still played a role in the offense (before taking over play-calling), it's likely that associate head coach Tom Clements had a slightly different view of how to call plays and attack defenses in the 2nd quarter.
Whether that affected the actual calls, created confusion for the offense, or made for a more conservative approach, it's something to consider. In the end, we'll probably never really know how Clements impacted the offense's scoring in the 2nd quarter.
As the Packers take on the Redskins Sunday, it will be interesting to see how Green Bay approaches and executes the offense in the 2nd quarter. In a postseason atmosphere - on the road - the Packers can't afford to fall behind big.
Those 15 minutes leading up to halftime could very well be the determining factor for Rodgers and company, in part because it could force the Packers to become even more predictable, easier to defend, and more susceptible to making mistakes.
The result would likely be a one-and-done scenario for a club who started 6-0 this season.
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