Segura Trade: Only One Player Really Matters for the Brewers
As GM David Stearns continues to put his imprint on the Milwaukee Brewers, a good portion of the fan base still has trouble seeing the forest through the trees. The latest trade - sending Jean Segura to the Arizona Diamondbacks - is a good test on how we should view transactions right now.
Of the 5 players swapped in the Segura trade, Brewers' fans should only truly concern themselves with one: the youngest guy of the group, 19-year-old Isan Diaz.
Too many people are commenting on the rest of the pieces in this deal when in reality, they're all just pawns in a play to acquire Diaz. I've seen complaints of who Milwaukee got back for what some perceive as a high-value shortstop in Segura and a "prospect" in Tyler Wagner.
There are multiple issues with this thinking and before touching on Diaz, the clear jewel of the trade, I'll explain why the other 4 guys are simply complementary.
1) Segura has a .285 OBP over the last 2 seasons, no power, and people continue to debate his defensive prowess, which at best would be considered slightly above average. Even during a time of few star shortstops, Segura's 69+ OPS the past 2 years (100 average) is abysmal.
He was not going to be a part of the Brewers' future with top prospect Orlando Arcia likely ready to be the 2017 Opening Day starter and other cheap, higher-ceiling options to play 2nd base down the road. In fact, Diaz could be one of those kids moved to 2nd base from his current position of shortstop.
Stearns likely saw Segura's market shrinking once the San Diego Padres signed Alexei Ramirez, and with Segura hitting arbitration, his salary would only continue to increase ($2.6 million this season), lowering his value further.
The slight chance of value increase, mainly from a strong first half, wasn't going to outweigh the risk of keeping Segura too long and getting less for him. At this point, I'm saying Stearns made the right call in moving on from Segura now.
2) Chase Anderson and Tyler Wagner - the two pitchers switching sides in the deal - shouldn't be seen as anything particularly special, though the Brewers still got the better pitcher.
Wagner is 25 years old and heads to Arizona as a fringe prospect who Milwaukee didn't have any big plans for at the MLB level. His lack of elite stuff means his best chance to stick in the majors is as a relief pitcher and potential 5th-starter option.
Anderson comes to the Brewers with 2 full MLB seasons under his belt and will provide quality depth to the Crew's rotation. He won't likely turn any heads, but some see room for improvement in his numbers thanks to a strong changeup. His ceiling is still higher than Wagner's as well.
Though Anderson is 2 years older than Wagner, he is under team control for 5 more seasons. For a team like the Brewers, a somewhat proven starter with upside and distance from free agency, Anderson is an important piece as they rebuild the roster for long-term success.
3) Veteran Aaron Hill was a salary dump for the D-Backs, though reports have said Arizona kicked in $5.5 million to cover the $12 million left on his contract deal. This move frees up cash for the Diamondbacks should they want to make a mid-season move and to push toward the postseason.
Best case scenario for the Brewers, Hill will reclaim some of his 2013-14 magic when he combined to hit 37 HR with a .298/.359/.501/.860 slash line. If he comes anywhere close to those rate numbers in the first half of the season, then Stearn could pull in yet another quality prospect at the deadline.
At worst, Hill will plug holes at 2nd and 3rd base throughout the year, allowing Milwaukee to evaluate other options in the minors at their own pace. Then come season's end, Hill's contract is off the books and they're no worse for the wear.
It's likely the outcome ends up in-between the above scenarios, where Hill has a decent first half, Stearns gets something in return, and the Brewers march on in their rebuilding project.
So now that you understand why those other cogs in the trade are (mostly) sideshows, let's get away from any complaints about "only getting a 5th starter and an old utility guy for Segura," because none of those 4 really matter in the long run.
Diaz is what this deal truly centers around - and if you believe scouting reports past and present - this could be an incredibly shrewd move by Stearns.
Bill Mitchell, a regular contributor to Baseball America for the Diamondbacks, had this to say about Diaz last November.
"Scouts and Pioneer League managers were universally high on Diaz during my research into that league’s prospects. As good as the reports were from the Pioneer League, scouts were even more glowing about his potential after viewing him in instructional league. He probably won’t stay at shortstop, but it looks like the bat is real."
How good was he in the Pioneer League, you ask?
The left-handed hitting shortstop won the MVP on the strength of a .360 average (3rd), .436 OBP (3rd) and a stunning .640 slugging percentage (1st), adding up to a Pioneer League-best 1.076 OPS.
Diaz also led the league in doubles (25) and total bases (174), while finishing 2nd in runs (58) and home runs (13), and 3rd in RBI (51). All of this was accomplished by the teenager in 312 plate appearances over 68 games for Missoula.
Back in 2014, longtime baseball man Peter Gammons spoke highly of Diaz on an MLB Network draft broadcast, making comparisons to 6-time All Star Robinson Cano:
"There's a lot of raw talent here -- he can really swing the bat," Gammons said. "He's going to be a second baseman. He emulates everything Robinson Cano does. He's got a great swing. He's going to be a long project, but there's a great deal of offensive ability there."
Interestingly, in an article on MiLB.com last June, Diaz was described as having a confident, charismatic style...and Diaz himself noted his mimicry of Cano:
"I don't want to say I'm flashy -- I try not to be," said Diaz. "I try to be as compact as possible. But I try to emulate Robinson Cano. I watch his highlights. I watch his BPs. I used to watch him play at Yankee Stadium. I feel like his style of play is my style of play, and I feel like if I do what he does, I'll have a little more success."
Between the Cano comps, drooling scouts, MVP numbers last season in the minors, and the fact that Diaz can't even legally drink, it's fair to expect him to become easily the best MLB player in this deal. In fact, Stearns is banking on his exciting potential.
Give Diaz time to develop over the next couple of seasons - no need to rush - and you can see him being another key piece of the Brewers' rebuilding puzzle.
So again, as you look at this trade and how each player performs, don't worry too much about the 4 elders of the group and how they contribute to their respective clubs. Anything Hill adds is gravy, and Anderson can simply be a decent arm to steady the rotation.
Instead of fretting over their numbers, watch the progression of Diaz, listen to how the organization speaks of him, and pay attention to his prospect rankings as he slowly climbs the charts and into Miller Park.