Recognizing the Harm of the Bucks' 41-41 Record Last Year
As much fun as it was to watch the Milwaukee Bucks go 41-41 to earn a playoff spot last year, it may have been the worst thing to happen to the fan base and front office. It was a bit of fool's gold and has skewed the perception of what the Bucks are doing.
Amidst all the hype of the upcoming season, a handful of people (myself included) warned the Bucks' faithful that another jump in victories was far from guaranteed. In fact, many of us could see a step backward - and that it would be fine.
The truth remains that 98% of NBA teams don't add 26 wins in one season, especially if 1) The team remains relatively the same, and 2) The previous season saw only 15 victories. Last year was a perfect mix of weaker opponents, surprise performances, and a bit of luck along the way.
But imagine for a moment the 2014-15 Bucks followed a natural progression. A realistic bump in wins would have been 8 or 9 more, giving them (let's be optimistic) a 24-58 record a season ago.
Going off that premise and continuing the process, perhaps 10-12 additional W's would be expected in the 2015-16 campaign. In adding Greg Monroe and Jabari Parker (for a full season) to this hypothetical record above, a dozen extra wins would certainly be acceptable this year.
So now Milwaukee's 22-32 record, with 28 contests to go this year, doesn't seem so frightening or out of place. If the Bucks could go 14-14 during the unofficial 2nd half of the season, they would finish at 36-46. That's on target for a 12-win improvement on the record they "should" have had last season.
Suddenly, the Bucks' plan looks and feels right. It's amazing how an exciting, uplifting and unexpected season can actually have a negative impact on the perception of what the bigger picture entails.
It's important to keep a few things in mind regarding this season and the rebuilding process.
1) The average age of the Bucks' 5 main starters is 22.8 years old. For reference sake, Golden State's starting 5 averages out to 26.2 years old. Toronto's is 28.4 and Boston at 25.4. Milwaukee's young core needs time to develop.
2) Giannis Antetokounmpo is only 21 - and he has improved in nearly every aspect of his game. His 2-point field goal percentage has gone up 9.7% in 2 seasons (53.7%). Rebounding, assists, steals, blocks and points have all increased as well, averaging 15.9 points per contest (one of youngest in top 50).
3) Parker has played in 73 career games - less than a full season - and he's just 20 years old. He's essentially still a rookie. Also, don't underestimate the challenge of fully recovering from a major knee injury and surgery. Next season will be a true evaluation of his skills.
I fully realize we're a "what have you done for me lately" society, particularly when it comes to sports; however, it would be foolish to panic considering all the factors. The organization needs to let things happen organically to see how the team comes together and grows.
This isn't to say there aren't any concerns or issues with the current version of the club.
The demise of the defense this season has been well documented. There are a few potential reasons, including the addition of Monroe and Parker creating problems with spacing and defensive coverage.
Many have questioned the fit and necessary ability of Michael Carter-Williams at point guard. It can't all be put on him, but the fact is Milwaukee has a 23-39 record when MCW starts the past 2 seasons. In the other 74 games, the Bucks are 40-34.
There's definitely still work to be done on and off the court. A trade or two could be an important part of moving forward...or standing pat and letting it ride might make the most sense.
At this point, aside from minor moves with veterans being shipped out, we should all at least give this group the rest of this season and through January of next year to see what happens. If the progress is stagnant or moves back, then it's fair to shift more pieces.