How the Schedule is (or isn't) Affecting the Milwaukee Bucks
Following their 112-107 road loss to the Boston Celtics, the Milwaukee Bucks sit at 24-34 this year, leaving many to wonder why they've taken a step back - at least in terms of their record. One factor to consider in 2016: The Bucks have a tougher schedule this season.
No matter which type of strength of schedule rating you look at, Milwaukee had one of the easier paths to the surprising 41-41 mark last season.
Basketball-Reference.com gave them the 5th-softest schedule a year ago. ESPN ranked the Bucks' schedule as the 7th-easiest. Even the more in-depth and stat-heavy Sagarin Ratings put Milwaukee at 19th overall (12th-easiest) in strength of schedule.
That's not to say the wins are guaranteed as you still need to take care of business. At the same time, teams like Golden State, San Antonio and Oklahoma City are all enjoying extremely easy schedules this season and their records reflect that.
So far in 2015-16, the Bucks haven't been so fortunate in the strength of their opponents. Basketball Reference says it's the 10th-toughest, ESPN ranks it 11th-hardest, and the Sagarin Ratings argue an even more challenging road - they give Milwaukee the 4th-toughest schedule.
Comparing the difficulty of the Bucks' opponents the past two seasons could give you a valid reason as to why - despite the hype and progression of players - this year has been harsher all around.
Of course, at some point you need to beat quality teams on a consistent basis.
For example, according to Sagarin the Warriors had the 5th-toughest schedule last season, yet they still went 83-20 (including playoffs) en route to the NBA Championship.
This year, Sagarin says they have the 10th-easiest path, but that's only part of the story. Against top 10-ranked teams according to Sagarin, the Warriors are a perfect 15-0. They're also 27-1 when facing the top 16 teams of Sagarin's rankings.
That is where the Bucks fail to measure up; however, they have had better results against the better teams this season.
Versus top 16 opponents, the Bucks own a .323 winning percentage (10-21) this season compared to a .271 mark (13-35) last year. They've also gone 7-14 against top 10 teams (.333) this year, while only going 8-24 (.250) against them a season ago.
So as you can see, there's actually been a slight improvement in the Bucks' performance when they square off with the better half of the league.
It's the losses to the lower-ranked clubs where you find the big discrepancy between their success in 2014-15 and the disappointment of the current year.
Jason Kidd's group went an outstanding 30-10 last season when playing the bottom 16 teams in the Sagarin Ratings - a .750 winning percentage. This year, the Bucks are just 14-13 (.519) against those same clubs.
And if you don't trust the Sagarin Ratings in evaluating a team's ranking, against teams with a .500 record or worse through February 25, the Bucks are 13-14 this season.
If they were winning at the same level against the lower half this year, that would mean an additional 6 victories and a more comforting overall record of 30-28 with 24 games left. That would've put them 1.5 games out of the 5th seed.
Instead, Milwaukee sits 12th in the Eastern Conference, 6 games from even reaching the final playoff spot.
Figuring out why the Bucks have struggled to claim victory when it's expected...well, that continues to be a greater challenge. It still starts on the defensive end where the scheme appears to challenge some players' ability.
The struggle to mesh players to the strategy, coupled with the Bucks allowing the 2nd-highest offensive rebound percentage in the NBA, has led to Milwaukee giving up 103 points per contest - 5.6 more points per game.
On the offensive side, a lack of consistent shooting continues to be an issue, as do problems holding onto the ball. The Bucks own the 5th-highest turnover percentage in the NBA.
Barring a miraculous sprint to the finish, it's best to view this season as a learning experience. The lessons gathered include the importance of winning the games you should and how to go about doing that on a regular basis.