The Brewers' "Hidden Prospect," Domingo Santana
Despite his 6-foot-5, 225-pound frame, Domingo Santana seems to often be overlooked when fans and pundits discuss the Milwaukee Brewers' youth movement. His 187 MLB plate appearances with the Brewers and Houston Astros last year keeps him off the top prospects lists and hiding in plain sight.
When he was included in the Carlos Gomez trade last summer, some people actually pointed out Santana as the player with the highest ceiling, even greater than Milwaukee's 2nd-rated prospect, Brett Phillips.
Everyone loves his arm, which profiles perfectly for right field. The Brewers gave him some looks in center field, but that was more to get him playing time and judge his defense in general - he won't be a regular there.
We also saw of glimpse of his offensive skill set, though 38 games is obviously a small sample size. He only hit .231 with the Brewers, but he worked his OBP up to .345 thanks to 18 walks and showing a good feel for the zone. Santana also collected 18 RBI with 6 HR and 5 doubles.
The major question with Santana has always been, will he make enough consistent contact? Yes, we know the modern view of strikeouts aren't as harsh as in the past, but there are other ways to measure the value of contact and plate discipline.
We'll get to that in a moment.
Realistically, Santana will always bring K's with him - that's generally an effect of power. Santana has potentially elite power, as he showed in his short time with the Brewers. His ability to turn on inside pitches for homers to left and drive pitches middle-away for bombs to right and right-center was key.
His first HR as a Brewer came in a full count, on a 94-MPH fastball on the inner half of the plate. The strength, quickness and skill to pull his hands into his body, get the barrel out in front and keep the ball fair - for a homer - is an exciting thing to see from a 23-year-old.
This can be especially challenging for a hitter of his size and wing span, because they'll either be slow with the barrel or pull their hands in so far as to lose power. If he can continue to prove he can do damage on those pitches, he'll get more balls away where he can extend.
Santana's pop to the opposite field may be his greatest asset - particularly at Miller Park where the shorter porch in right would be in play for him. Keep in mind, he's (hopefully) still maturing as a hitter, which can also help him improve his contact.
Getting into some more in-depth stats related to his contact skills, Santana's career minor league strikeout percentage (K%) was 28.8% prior to the trade to the Brewers. For reference sake, if we placed that number into the MLB leaderboard, he would've had the 6th-highest percentage.
A large contributor to his struggles resulted from problems making contact with pitches that were actually in the zone. Many young hitters will chase bad pitches often, which get them in trouble, but for Santana, he's been whiffing on too many hittable balls.
In the minors - again before last year's trade - Santana had a zone contact percentage (Z-Contact %) of just 72.6%. Once more, if compare that with the big leaguers, it's a disaster. Of the 141 qualified batters last year, the lowest mark was 75.8% (30th was 91.7%).
That's not necessarily a death sentence as many good-to-great hitters are somewhat in the neighborhood. The difference is, he also struggled to make contact on pitches outside the zone (O-Contact %), doing so at a 33.7% clip.
The worst MLB hitter in this category last season sat at 49.1% - a full 15.4% better and at the highest level as well.
Those are some reasons for concern, making Santana a bit of a boom or boost candidate. He's capable of 30+ HR in the Bigs and his career minor league slash line inspires confidence (.282/.373/.485); however, will he find the barrel often enough?
If you're looking for optimism, a few things to consider...
1) Keep in mind, most 23-year-old hitters are far from polished. Santana won't turn 24 until August, so with ample playing time he has tons of room to develop as a hitter.
2) In his last Triple-A romp in the Astros' organization, Santana's contact percentage on pitches outside of the zone went up almost 22% from his minor league average.
3) Though it's a much smaller sample size, he swung at fewer balls out of the zone in 2015 at the MLB level (24.7%) than he had in 2014 (41.2%). He also upped his in-zone contact from 50% in 2014 to 79.8% last season.
From what I've seen, Santana has the look and feel of a professional who is truly working on his craft. The Brewers will eventually have decisions to make with him and the wealth of outfield talent behind him, but for 2016, the floor is his.
Elite, right-handed power has become a rarity across the game, and while the Brewers traded away a player in that vein in Khris Davis, Santana definitely has the chops to replace Davis' value...and then some.
You should also acknowledge that his minor league numbers across 7 seasons are strong, especially since he was often playing at an age 3-5 years below the average player at each level.
As a 20-year-old in Double-A, Santana blasted 25 HR and 23 doubles in just 112 games. A year later his HR total dipped, but he increased his doubles, boosted his OBP to .384 and posted a better OPS at .858 in 120 Triple-A contests.
There is some clear, proven talent in his stick and now we get to watch it (hopefully) unfold before our very eyes. In a way, he has some similar tendencies to Carlos Gomez, which given some age and time, figured some things out at the dish as well.
As you watch Santana this year, appreciate the growth and recognize he's only scratching the surface.