Playing the Percentages: Packers' 1st-Round Draft Pick
You can look at any number of sites - reputable and otherwise - to find 467 attempts at mock drafts for the NFL's real version which begins on April 28. In an effort to be more realistic, we're not looking to predict the Green Bay Packers' 1st-round pick exactly, just the likely position they fill.
Our "Playing the Percentages" feature doesn't technically seek to give you answers, just the chances of a potential outcome. When it comes to the NFL draft it's already a crapshoot, so we limit the scope of predictability with our positional percentages instead.
Of course, things can change quickly should GM Ted Thompson sign an actual free agent or make a draft day trade. Again, tough to predict the particulars, so we'll stick with a wider area of focus which can still give you some insight.
And keep in mind, these are based on the assumption that the Packers will actually make a selection in the 1st round. There's always a chance Thompson trades down to acquire more picks if he doesn't like what he sees at number 27 in the 1st round.
So...which position will the Packers likely fill with their 1st-round selection?
Offensive Tackle - 32%
Considering the way players were shuffled around the offensive line last year, and how it compromised the safety of Aaron Rodgers, there's a clear need to add quality depth - especially at tackle. Relying Don Barclay or Josh Walker to fill in again may be disastrous for the franchise QB and the team.
The reason a competent backup is needed is in part because Bryan Bulaga played in 12 games last year, and he routinely misses a handful of contests (or parts of them) each season. David Bakhtiari also missed 2 games last year, and linemen getting banged up is all too common.
This draftee could end up a starter in the future, should Thompson look to move on from either of his tackles due to cost or injury. The top 5 offensive tackles are: Laremy Tunsil (Ole Miss), Ronnie Stanley (Notre Dame), Jack Conklin (Michigan St.), Taylor Decker (Ohio St.) and Jason Spriggs (Indiana).
Spriggs is likely to be available when Green Bay picks, and they could have an outside shot at Decker or Conklin depending on how the earlier picks shake out.
Inside Linebacker - 16%
Just about everyone knows that Clay Matthews has a greater impact on the outside, so bringing in a talented inside backer could really step the defense up a notch. Thus, the percentage would be higher here, except the 1st-round skill at this position is lacking.
As of now, Reggie Ragland of Alabama is the only inside linebacker projected to go in the 1st round. It's probable he's gone by the middle of the opening round, so unless Thompson trades up (doubtful), he won't even make it to the Packers' selection.
Kentrell Brothers (Missouri) looks to be a 2nd round selection, so with the Packers sitting just 5 picks before the 2nd, he is a possibility. However, Thompson could easily wait until their 2nd-round pick to grab one of a handful of ILBs slotted in that area.
As always, it will come down to how Thompson views their value and skill appropriate to the draft slot.
Defensive Tackle - 47%
This appears to be the most plausible position from which the Packers select in the 1st round. For one, the departure of B.J. Raji leaves an open role on Green Bay's defensive line. Secondly, there are up to 7 defensive tackles projected as 1st-round talents.
We know the Packers like to rotate guys on the line, and like relief pitchers, it appears production varies from year to year. Bringing in a young, powerful DT to help anchor the line is a good fit across the board. With the number of players available here, you'd think they can nab a high-ceiling guy.
Again, with the amount of DTs likely drafted in the 1st round, coupled with a relative need for the Packers, this seems like a good bet (hence the near 50-50 proposition). Of course, with Thompson, you really never know.
The 7 top DT listed are: Sheldon Rankins (Louisville), A'Shawn Robinson (Alabama), Jarran Reed (Alabama), Andrew Billings (Baylor), Robert Nkemdiche (Ole Miss), Vernon Butler (LA Tech), and Kenny Clark (UCLA). The last 4 could easily be available for the Packers at pick 27.
Miscellaneous Position - 5%
Perhaps this number should be higher too, since Thompson claims to always go for the best talent available. There are some skilled players that could be floating around late in the first that may not seem to make sense on the surface.
Could Thompson choose to take another cornerback in the 1st round if that's what the board says? Despite taking Damarious Randall and Quinten Rollins in the first 2 rounds last year, I'm sure he would say you can't have enough quality defensive backs.
There could also be a couple intriguing wide receivers sitting there, but with a returning Jordy Nelson and Ty Montgomery to go with Randall Cobb and Davante Adams, wouldn't that be a waste of a 1st-rounder? How about a defensive end or outside linebacker? If the talent fits the draft slot, it's possible.
We can't put it past Thompson to take a player that only makes sense to him and his big board, though we still think the odds are slim. Like a meteorologist, as lone as we're not saying 0% or 100%, we aren't technically wrong.
Where would you put your money on the position taken by the Packers in the 1st round? Perhaps you'd say none of the above and figured he trades down. That certainly is in play depending on who Green Bay actually likes late in the first.
Either way, it feels like a big year to ensure they select a solid 1st and 2nd-round pick, as the Packers may be just a couple contributors away from returning to the Super Bowl.