Playing the Percentages: Bucks' Offseason Trade Options
As the Milwaukee Bucks close out a somewhat disappointing 2015-16 campaign, one or two major changes are likely to occur this offseason as the front office continues to search for the perfect mix of talent.
Aside from Giannis Antetokounmpo and Jabari Parker, it's probably fair to say that every other player could be moved for the right price. Not all of those guys have the same chances of being dealt, but a few would certainly be attractive to other clubs.
That's where our "Playing the Percentages" feature comes into play. You can click the link to the left or the box at the top to see more of these features.
If you've read any of these types of articles before, you know we're not technically predicting anything, but giving you an idea of the chances something would happen - along with the rationale.
So for the Bucks, we're surmising the possibility of a few players being traded this offseason...though what they'd get in return is pure, 100% speculation.
Michael Carter-Williams - 14%
There may not be a tougher player on the roster to figure out than MCW. Nearly everyone is still intrigued by his potential, in part because of his size and skill set combination. However, he's shown plenty of warts and might not fit in with the team's strategy and makeup.
Additionally, though Jason Kidd said MCW and Giannis would both handle the ball, Milwaukee looks committed to featuring the "Greek Freak" at the point offensively. In theory, this pushes Carter-Williams to a bench role where his value probably only drops.
The biggest issue now in holding up a potential deal is the torn labrum in his hip that will have MCW out of action until around June or July. Teams that may have had interest will understandably be hesitant to take on Carter-Williams without proof he's fully recovered and ready to go full speed next season.
A lot will depend on the Bucks' desperation to move on from MCW, the club's additional moves at both guard positions, and how willing other teams are to offer anything of significance with questions about Carter-Williams' ability and health.
Greg Monroe - 52%
With the talk leading up to the trade deadline, Monroe's temporary backup role, and the apparent poor fit defensively, it seems like Monroe's days in Milwaukee are numbered. He's attractive to most teams as a solid performer with a consistent track record throughout his career (14.5 points, 9.2 rebounds per game).
The most challenging obstacle could be Monroe's contract. Not the fact that he's due to make $17.1 million next season, but that he has a player option for the following year. In essence, a team may only be getting one season of the "Moose" and be unwilling to give Milwaukee a worthwhile return.
There are ways around that problem (unless the NBA doesn't allow it), such as Monroe accepting the player option prior to a deal or the Bucks giving a potential trade partner a window to negotiate a longer contract with Monroe first.
Another problem could stem from teams shying away from bigger, lumbering inside guys. The league has mostly transitioned to a long, quick and athletic game where big men have lost some value. This may limit the number of teams that might actually be interested.
Some discussion has surfaced that the Bucks could package Monroe with their 1st-round pick (assuming it's in the 9-12 range) to enable them to select closer to the top of the draft, as well as add complementary pieces in that deal. This would depend highly on who gets those first few picks, of course.
Khris Middleton - 31%
Despite being the Bucks' leading scorer at 18.2 points per game, there have been rumblings that a Middleton trade would make sense for Milwaukee as they tweak the chemistry of the team. Some feel he isn't the right type of player at guard or small forward if the focus is on Antetokounmpo and Parker.
Middleton could net a high-quality return, especially if a team sees his contract as a positive. It's a relatively club-friendly deal considering his production. He's due an average of $14 million through the 2018-19 season, with a player option for the 2019-20 campaign - when he'll still be only 28 years old.
The Bucks have no urgency to move Middleton, but he doesn't seem to be the type of high-ceiling guy Milwaukee is looking for as a core piece in the starting lineup. He's sort of a safe play...you know what you're getting. There's nothing wrong with that, it's just not the strategy the Bucks have followed in the rebuild.
When they reach a point where they're truly competitive (two more years?), a piece like Middleton makes sense. However, is he the right guy to help them get there, and when they do, does he fit into the overall philosophy? Something tells me he's really not.
Overall, Middleton could be the player who brings the Bucks the most value in an offseason trade should they feel the time is right. It's a tough decision since Middleton has been Milwaukee's most consistent producer all year long.