The Case for Trading - or Keeping - Chris Carter
When the Milwaukee Brewers filled their 1st base hole with free agent Chris Carter, the consensus was that his 1-year, $2.5 million deal was designed to be traded in July for another young prospect. Maybe they'd get a pair of quality guys if Carter had a huge 1st half.
Through May 4th, Carter was holding up his end of the bargain with a Major League best .681 slugging percentage. Carter's 9 home runs are good for 4th in MLB, while his 1.024 OPS ranks 7th in the NL - .003 points ahead of Bryce Harper.
It's important to remember that the Brewers have played only 26 games, so while Carter's terrific start certainly raises his trade value, history says his numbers will drop significantly as we go forward.
Carter has had 3 different season where he's played in 70+ games and he never owned an .800 OPS or a .500 slugging percentage. Over those 3 seasons combined he batted .218 with a .312 OBP. With Carter currently hitting .275 with a .343 OBP, there should be concern that a big fall off is coming.
Therein lies the rub, as teams aren't generally looking to make a deal until the end of June (at the earliest). Can Carter continue to produce at a high level for another 8 weeks? His consistency will be a tremendous key to the return Milwaukee could get for him.
That is, if the Brewers actually do trade him away this season. While flipping Carter mid-season looked like an inevitable guarantee upon his signing this winter, there are some interesting and complicated items to consider - as there normally are.
Despite Milwaukee officially inking Carter to a 1-year contract, because he's acquired so little service time at the MLB level, the Brewers actually have Carter under control through the 2018 season as part of the arbitration process.
Thus, he isn't really one a 1-year deal where the Brewers would have no reason to keep him beyond the trade deadline. Under that scenario, they'd simply get whatever they could, even a low-level, long shot prospect.
Instead, they can choose to be a bit more particular and hold out for a better player or larger package, since they could keep him and look for another deal in the offseason or at the 2017 trade deadline. In the end, it makes the signing even shrewder as it gave the Brewers greater potential for a deal.
If Carter can hover around similar numbers and hit about 20 HR by the All-Star break, he'd garner significant interest. Right-handed power is at a premium in baseball. Then the onus would be on GM David Stearns to determine what offers would be "good enough."
While he could hold out for more and just hang onto Carter, there's risk in banking that the 1st baseman would put up similar numbers over the course of the entire season or at the start of 2017 in order to get greater value down the road. It's a delicate balancing act.
Keep in mind, Carter's career high for HR and OPS in a season is 24 and .799 respectively - and those came in separate years. Neither of those numbers would net anything special. He also only had a .199 average last season to go with a .307 OBP.
In theory, the longer you keep Carter, the greater chance there is that he reverts back to his average performance. Although, things started to turn around for him near the end of last season when he altered his stance and mechanics, leading to a consistently higher exit velocity coming off his bat.
Retaining Carter for the next season or two isn't the worst thing in the world either. The Brewers don't have a true 1st base prospect waiting in the wings right now, and even with a big year in 2016, his contract wouldn't likely jump up too much, either through arbitration or a negotiated deal.
Should his numbers remain at a higher level than his career averages, there would be no issue paying Carter $4-5 million next season. Someone has to play 1st base. The problem is, at 29 years old, he's likely not a realistic part of the plan when the Brewers are competing again in a few years.
So, what should Stearns do?
The best play in my mind is to trade Carter this season and get as much as possible for him - especially if he's having a career year. Considering the Brewers are still far from contending for anything, adding more young talent remains the goal in 2016 and 2017.
Finding another stopgap for this year and beyond wouldn't be that difficult as 1st base is a relatively easy position to fill if you're not looking for a elite talent right now. For example, Pedro Alvarez, Brandon Moss and James Loney are all free agents after this season
For the long term, there's still time to find a quality player, whether it's signing a guy or trading for one. The Brewers may also move a high-ceiling bat in the minors over to 1st base from another position.
As the season continues to progress toward June and July, it will be intriguing to watch Carter on the field while listening to the rumors off the field. You should enjoy each HR twice as much knowing he's helping the Brewers now and hopefully in the future, in the form of another player.