Brewers' Braun, Lucroy, Carter Should Be on Nationals' Radar
The Washington Nationals are intent on winning a World Series or two over the next few seasons, and they've committed a boatload of money to the cause. Last year, their end-of-year payroll was up over $169 million, and now they've extended Stephen Strasburg with a 7-year, $175 million deal.
Clearly, the decision-makers in DC are willing to take any means necessary to bring a title home to the nation's capital.
Despite the talent, strong start and bloated contracts, Washington was swept by the Chicago Cubs in a 4-game series at Wrigley Field last weekend.
Not only was the 4 losses in 4 days a shot to the egos of the Washington brass, but the way Sunday's game broke down was a sign of potential trouble. The Nats' ultimate threat, Bryce Harper, was rendered helpless with 6 walks (3 intentional) and a hit-by-pitch.
While he reached base 7 times in 7 plate appearances, Harper scored only 1 run, in large part due to Ryan Zimmerman's inability to hit a baseball consistently. The right-handed 1st baseman went 1-for-7 on the day and has a .245 average, .303 OBP and 98 OPS+ over the past 2 years (despite 2 HR Tuesday).
Zimmerman I also 3-for-28 following a Harper walk this season, so clearly the strategy has worked for opponents thus far.
With that type of hitter in the cleanup spot, why wouldn't you give Harper a free pass when you have a far greater chance of retiring the next man up? Cubs' manager Joe Maddon was simply playing the percentages, and it paid off with a 4-3 win in extra innings.
While the 4-game sweep represents just 2.5% of the entire season, you have to believe the Nationals' front office felt a bit of panic at the apparent gap between the two clubs.
They also need to recognize the lack of threatening hitters behind Harper, and how other clubs will likely follow the strategy in the regular season and playoffs.
The Nationals have a feel of desperation about them after failing to live up to past expectations. Keep in mind, they suffered through an extremely disappointing 2015 campaign. They finished 83-79 and failed to reach the playoffs when many believed they were the team to beat.
In 2014 and 2012 they won 96 and 98 games respectively, but were unable to reach the Fall Classic. In fact, they didn't even make it to the National League Championship Series in either year. While the Nats may do just about anything to get that ring now, other clubs are content to wait.
Thus, the Milwaukee Brewers - a club focused on only the future - could be the perfect team to offer a deal that gives the Nationals the push they need to be a postseason force this year (and beyond).
Additionally, Washington's farm system is near the top 10 in MLB and they have enough talent in the minors that would certainly intrigue the Brewers. From the Nationals' perspective, Ryan Braun, Jonathan Lucroy and Chris Carter all would be coveted pieces and immediately make them better.
While their pitching has been among the best in the NL (3rd in ERA, WHIP and K/9), Washington currently ranks 8th in runs scored (5.67 runs/game) and 10th in OPS (.725).
Harper and Daniel Murphy - both left-handed sticks - each have an OPS over 1.000; however, 5 of the other 6 regulars own an OPS below .700. Catcher Wilson Ramos is red hot right now, but coming into 2016 had a .711 career OPS.
The Nationals' needs for a right-handed bat are clear with Zimmerman's numbers declining each year since 2012 (currently .235/.288/.383) and outfielder Jayson Werth putting up a .216/.293/.394 from the start of 2015. Werth is also 35 years old, so he's not bouncing back any time soon.
Here's why Braun makes a ton of sense as an instant replacement for Werth.
Braun is only 32, has a .300/.371/.518 slash line in his last 171 games, plays the outfield and is signed through 2020. Werth, aside from his ugly stats and elder status, is only under contract until the end of next season.
The Brewers, assuming they would get a couple of top-10 prospects and an additional player, would gladly swap the contracts. It's unlikely, however, that Milwaukee could convince the Nats to include either of their best 2 prospects - starting pitcher Lucas Giolito and shortstop Trea Turner.
Still, Werth's money would be unloaded after the 2017 season, before the Brewers ramp up to compete. It also also eliminates the last 3 years of salary from Braun's deal - $57 million including the 2021 buyout - or at least a good portion of it, depending on the agreement.
Imagine a middle of the order featuring a Harper-Braun-Murphy trio to make pitchers pay for mistakes and especially the walks to Harper. That certainly creates a formidable offensive gauntlet for the opposition to navigate.
A trade for Braun would also give the Nationals some insurance over the next 4-5 years should they decide to trade Harper. I realize that sounds crazy, but Harper can become a free agent after the 2018 season and some are projecting he gets an offer greater than $300 million.
The Nationals are clearly looking to compete in the long run with Max Scherzer signed through 2021 to go along with Strasburg's new deal into the 2023 season.
With all of the money on Washington's books already, they may figure that getting a big return for Harper is the best move for prolonged sustainability. In that case, they'd still have an elite hitter in Braun, and they'd fill in the rest with pieces from a trade or free agency at a much lower cost.
The other trade options for Washington would be on a smaller scale, trying to nab Lucroy or Carter, who both with pros and cons.
By dealing for Carter, they'd have a legitimate power threat at 1st base and have control of his contract through 2018 at a reasonable price. Carter's home run ability isn't in doubt, but he's surely going to fall short of his current slugging percentage (.615) and OPS (.950).
The Nationals would be taking a bit of a risk in moving Zimmerman to the bench in favor of a player who had a career .217 average and .312 OBP entering this season.
Lucroy would be the safer bet as a hitter since he has a stronger track record (career .283/.341/.432) and has been a more consistent player. Lucroy is also a superior defender versus Ramos when it comes to blocking balls and framing pitches.
As noted, Ramos is on fire through the first 5 weeks of the season (.372/.407/.558), but over the last 2 seasons he has batted .245 with a .275 OBP. Last year he owned a .258 OBP and .358 slugging percentage while striking out 101 times compared to just 21 walks.
Lucroy could also see plenty of time at 1st base in place of Zimmerman, allowing both catchers to be in the lineup should their bats warrant it. Though Luc has his struggles at 1st and generally isn't a fan of playing there, I'm sure a move to a title-contending club would boost his optimism for the position.
One drawback, however, could be the perceived problems that may be created by having a new catcher handle a pitching staff halfway through the season. It's all conjecture and theory that there would be an issue, but there's some validity to it.
In the end, it's extremely difficult to predict a return for any trade; however, the need and opportunity is definitely there for a Brewers swap with the Nationals. The size and scope of any deal would be up for debate, and it's still too early to hear any real rumblings.
If Braun and Carter or Braun and Lucroy were sent to DC in a package deal, would they get Giolito or Turner for sure? Would that be a better haul than dealing Braun to one club and Lucroy to another?
It's fun to speculate and create mega-deals in your head - even though the Brewers may only stick to small trades this season. I'm hoping the summer months are filled with plenty of rumors, anticipation and intriguing trades in Milwaukee - especially if it involves the Nationals.